Lion Asset Management LLC Trading AlertsWelcome to Lion Trading Blogs at WhyLose.com
|
||||||||||
| Home • Trading • Recruitment • Leads • Protection • Performance • Terms • FAQs • Contact | ||||||||||
Archive:31st July 2006:
31st December 2005:
31st December 2004:
31st December 2003:
|
The Lion's Blog... Week 36September 8th, 2006 (7:00 am New York Time) CANADAWe have Employment Change figures coming out of Canada. Expected number is around 17 to 20K. If the number comes out at 40K or above, I will go short on USD/CAD. If the number comes out at -5.5K or more negative, I will go long on USD/CAD. If the triggers are hit, I am expecting a move of over 40 pips, depending on how strong the deviation is. September 8th, 2006Employment change came in at -16K which hit our long trigger and within 2 seconds we had exited at our take profit level with 20 pips. News trading as it should be. There was a 37 pip move in the first minute. September 7th, 2006 (7:00 am New York Time) UK
Okay, nothing is really going on today, except
Bank of England Interest Rate statement at 7:00 am New York Time. The
expected number is to stay unchanged at 4.75%. I looked at opinions of
about 50 institutions and economists, and they all agree unanimously
that there won't be a rate hike. So the chance for a hike is slim to
none. However, if for some weird reason Bank
of England does hike the rate...I will definitely load the boat so to
speak, and buy GBP/USD. Again the chances of this are pretty much
non-existent, so if you want to catch up on some sleep and don't want to
wake up for this report, you probably won't miss much. I will be
watching it and be ready to trade just in case.
September 7th, 2006 Update
Bank of England interest rate statement came out as expected, so it
was a no trade.
September 6th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have Industrial Production coming out of the UK. Expected number is 0.2%. Last month, we had same consensus, and the number came out at -0.1%. That caused GBP/USD pair to drop only 21 pips. Historically a deviation of 0.5% or bigger has produced moves of over 30 pips, which is what I am looking for. So if the number comes out at 0.7% or higher, I will go long on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -0.3% or more negative, I will go short on GBP/USD. A number between -0.2% and 0.6% would mean a no trade for me. September 6th, 2006 (9:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have Canada announcing its interest rate statement. It's expected to
stay unchanged at 4.25%. I've looked at expectations by 30 different
economists and institutions, and every single one of them is expecting
a no rate hike. So I highly doubt that there will be a hike. And when
I say highly, I mean 99%. I will still watch this, and if for some
reason there is a rate hike, I will go short on USD/CAD, and will be
looking to cash in about 75 pips.
September 6th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) USAWe have ISM Non-manufacturing numbers coming out of USA. From now on, I will be trading GBP/USD on both the U.S. numbers and the UK numbers. So the ISM Non-Manufacturing number is expected at around 55. If the number comes out at 57 or higher, I will go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at 53 or lower, I will go long on GBP/USD. I am expecting a move of 30 pips or over on the pound, if my triggers are hit. September 6th, 2006 UpdateUK Industrial Production came out exactly as expected, so that was a no trade. Then we had Canadian interest rate statement, which wasn't raised as expected, and Bank of Canada didn't make any particularly hawkish comments, so it was a no trade as well. Then we had the USA Non-Manufacturing index. My trigger was hit, and most people including myself went short on GBP/USD. Looking at the history on the 5-sec chart, the GBP/USD spiked down about 12 pips, and slowly went back to pre-release price about 55 seconds after the report. I exited the first half at 5 pips profit, and the second half at -3 pips, which was the spread, so we ended up making 2 pip! Not a bad scenario, considering that we had a pretty decent profit potential if the pound kept dropping. September 5th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Services PMI coming out. It's expected at 57.5 I am not
too excited about this report...it has a
very iffy history. This year it deviated significantly only three
times. For example, in January of this
year, this report came out 1.9 better than expected, and the
pound gained about 40 pips in the first half hour. Then in March,
the report came out 1.8 better than
expected, the pound spiked by only about 13 pips, and then dropped
like a rock below pre-release price. Then in May, this report came
out 2.1 better than expected, the pound moved up by about 34 pips in
the first two minutes, then dropped like a rock below pre-release
price.
So in all honesty, if this report comes out at 59.5 or higher, GBP/USD might go up 30 or more. If this report comes out at 55.5 or lower, GBP/USD might go down by about 30 pips or more. So a take profit at 25 pips is a nice target in my opinion, in case this report deviates as much as I said. However, if you use a broker that widens spread significantly, make sure it's worth it. In my opinion, trading such a report where the spread is increased to let's say 15 pips, so you are paying 15 pips in hopes to make 25 and net only 10 pips...I don't know if it's worth it. If you have a broker that will keep the spread normal at 3 pips, I'd say it's a good idea to trade this report, given that the deviation is according to my standards. September 5th, 2006 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIAWe have the Australian interest rate statement. Current rate in Australia is 6%, and it's expected that they won't do a rate hike, however, if they do hike the rate to 6.25% or more, AUD/USD will probably show some immediate strength. Normally if it was EUR/USD or GBP/USD, an unexpected rate hike would probably create a move of 100 to 200 pips on those pairs, however, AUD/USD has a smaller range, so a move of about 50 to 70 pips is most likely. Again, the hike is extremely unexpected. In all honesty, I don't even know if I will be watching this interest rate announcement, because chances for a hike are slim to none. So I'll see, if I have nothing else important to do, I might watch it and possibly trade it, or I might not. It's up to you what you want to do. September 5th Update
We had the UK Services PMI and Interest
Rate Statement out of Australia. UK Services PMI came out worse
than expected by 0.8, which meant a no trade. We did see the pound
weaken by about 19 pips immediately after the report, but since it
didn't hit my trigger, it was a no trade. Then we
ad Australian interest rate
statement. There were some rumors that Australia might do a hike,
but they didn't. The rate was left unchanged at 6%, so that was a
no trade either.
|
|||||||||
| Lion Asset Management LLC © 2006 |
Home • Trading • Recruitment • Leads • Protection • Performance • Terms • FAQs • Contact • Privacy • Risk • Links • Blogs • Site Map |
|||||||||
 |
|
|||||||||
