August 17th (4:30 am New York Time) UK

This is the last tradable report left this week.  It's UK retail sales. Here is what I am going to do.

We have July Retail Sales coming out of UK.  Consensus on this is 0.2%.  Let me give you a brief flashback what this report did in the last 3 months.  In April of this year, the consensus was at 0.3%.  The report came out at 0.7%, the pound moved from 1.7899 to 1.7930 in the first minute, then it retraced to about 1.7917 in the 2nd minute, then went up again, hit 1.7930 second time, then the 3rd minute, it plummeted down below pre-release price, and kept dropping.

In May of this year, consensus was at 0.5%, number came out at 0.6%.  The pound opened at 1.8870, moved to 1.8905 in the first 3 minutes, then gradually dropped, going below pre-release price 30 minutes later. 

In June of this year actual number came out same as consensus, which created a quick up and down effect, so that month is irrelevant.

In July of this year, consensus was at 0.4%, number came out at 0.9%, the pound opened at 1.8444, went up to 1.8475 in the first minute, then gradually dropped to 1.8450 in the next 10 minutes, then went back up to about 1.8474, 17 minutes after the report, then dropped some more, and again hit 1.8475 30 minutes after the report.

August 17th Update

We had the UK Retail Sales come out.  I said yesterday that if they come out at 0% or negative, I will go short on GBP/USD.  Well, they came out at -0.3%, which definitely signified a short on GBP/USD.  The pound moved down over 50 pips before starting to retrace and consolidate.  I hope you were able to capitalize on that move.  I sure did, filled me at 1.9005 and made 30 pips. 

August 16th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK

We have BOE meeting minutes coming out of UK.  They are going to cover the reason behind their interest rate decision the week before last week, and other interest rate plans.  If  there is some kind of hope or mention of even another hike in the next few months, I will go long on GBP/USD.  However, if they talk about not hiking the rates any longer, that should have some short term weakness on the pound. 

August 16th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA

We have monthly core CPI coming out of USA.  Some calendars, including Bloomberg are expecting it at 0.2%, and other calendars including Reuters, are expecting it at 0.3%.  If the number comes out at 0.4% or higher, I will go short on EUR/USD.  If the number comes out at 0.1% or lower, I will go long on EUR/USD.  0.2% or 0.3% will signify a no trade for me.  My focus will be core number, which is CPI excluding food and energy, though there is also regular monthly CPI coming out, and we have housing starts coming out at the same time, with expectations at 1808K or so.  I will enter based on the CPI number excluding food & energy if it hits my trigger, and then I will take into consideration all the revisions, housing starts, and all that, and if I find too many significant conflicts, I will exit immediately.

August 16th, 2006 (9:15 am New York Time) USA

We have Industrial Production coming out of USA.  Since August of 2005, I don't' think I ever saw this report move more than 15 pips, so definitely not worth trading for me.  The maximum it deviated this year was 0.3% and it deviated that much in May, June, and July, which caused 10, 13, and 14 pips moves, which are not worth it, in my opinion.  Then back in October of 2005, it deviated by a whole 0.9%, and it only caused a move of 14 pips.  Not worth it in my opinion...so I won't be trading this report.

August 15th (4:30 am New York Time) UK

We have July Consumer Price Index coming out of UK.  Expected number is 0%.  If it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I will go long on GBP/USD.  If it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, I will go short on GBP/USD. 

Historically a deviation of even 0.1 point has moved the pound 20 pips or more, that's why my trigger is so tight on this report.  If the deviation comes out at 0.2 points or over that's of course totally ideal, and chances are that pound will move over 40 pips then.  Again, these are just historical figures, and I will be taking my profits as soon as I see a significant and clear retracement on my 5-second chart.  Also, I will watch for previous month's revisions. 

We also have RPI, or Retail Price Index, coming out at the same time.  My focus of entry will be CPI, but if after I entered, I see Retail Price Index conflicting by at least 0.2 points or higher from CPI, I will be looking to exit my position then and there.  But to be honest, in 2006, there has never been a conflict between CPI and RPI, usually the numbers come out same direction.  Also, if you are using the forexfactory.com calendar they made a mistake on this report, they put regular CPI, and CPI excluding volatile items.  UK only has one monthly CPI figure.

August 15th (9:00 am New York Time) USA

We have TIC report or Net Foreign Security Purchases coming out of USA.  The consensus of this report varies by A LOT!  It goes from 62 billion to about 69.9 billion.  If the number comes out at 75 billion or above, I will go short on EUR/USD.  If it comes out at 55 billion or below, I will go long on EUR/USD.

August 15th Update

So we had UK CPI come out at 4:30 am EST.  The number came out -0.1%, and it moved the pound down by about 25 pips or so.  I grabbed 12 pips on this report. 

Okay, that brings me to the TIC report at 9:00 am.  It came out better than expected and hit my trigger, the market did move down about 18 pips in the first few seconds, and then started to retrace, I hope you made money, because I didn't.  So I traded this report, and I did exit before the pre-release price...however, I still lost 20 pips.

August 14th, 2006

I am not going to be trading anything.  There is PPI coming out of UK, however I am not going to trade it.  There is input and output, those numbers usually conflict all the time, so you can't just place a trade by one number.  I mean, once in a while, when both numbers are off same direction, there are moves of 20 pips and higher...but it's very difficult to react on two numbers at the same time, because it causes me to miss a portion of the spike, and usually this particular report retraces back rather quickly.  And to top it all off...GBP/USD spreads go nuts on some brokers so not worth taking the risk.  There are a few very nice reports later this week, that I am hoping to capitalize on.  Stay tuned :)