Lion Asset Management LLC Trading AlertsWelcome to Lion Trading Blogs at WhyLose.com
|
||||||||||
| Home • Trading • Recruitment • Leads • Protection • Performance • Terms • FAQs • Contact | ||||||||||
Archive:31st July 2006:
31st December 2005:
31st December 2004:
31st December 2003:
|
The Lion's Blog... Week 32August 11th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USAWe have retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and import prices coming out of USA all at the same time. July retail sales are expected at 0.9%, July retail sales x-autos are expected at 0.5%, and July import prices are expected at 0.8%. All three numbers are important...that's why this report is tricky...so here is what I will do. My focus will be regular retail sales, which are expected at 0.9%. If the retail sales come out at 0% or negative, I will go long on EUR/USD. If they come out at 2.0% or higher, I will go short on EUR/USD. Anything in between is no trade for me. Then once I am in the trade, I will look at the other two numbers and past month revisions, and if I see one of the numbers conflicting by at least 0.3%, I will be looking to exit once I see the momentum die. If my triggers are hit on this one...I am looking and hoping to profit about 30 pips... But as always, if I start seeing a significant retracement before that, I will exit, or if I see the price keeps climbing above 30 pips, I will of course hold on to it, and squeeze as much as I can out of this trade.
Good luck to us today :) This has been
a VERY slow week. If this report doesn't happen, I wouldn't really have
a whole lot of profits to cash out this week :) Oh well...there is
always another week...the fact that I didn't lose money during such dead
week makes me very happy.
August 11th UpdateThe retail sales came out better than expected. It didn't hit my trigger, so it was a no trade...however EUR/USD did move down 40+ pips. I'll tell you one thing...it was definitely a much bigger move than normal on such deviation. Of course when things like this happen, I almost want to bite my elbows, and wish that I set a less conservative trigger. August 10th (8:30 am New York Time)We have Trade Balance coming out of U.S. and Canada. I am only going to be focusing on the trade balance coming out of USA, and wont care about Canada. I will be trading EUR/USD. Expected number is around -64.5 If the number comes out at -65 or more negative, I think EUR/USD will go up. If the number comes out at -63.9 or less negative, I think EUR/USD will go down. I am going to do something different on this particular trade. I will go long on EUR/USD about a minute before the report, because I got a "hint" from "someone" that the trade balance will come out more negative from the expectations. I've received 6 hints from this same person before on other economic numbers and every one of them was correct...last week, he told me that U.S. non-farm payroll will come out "disappointing", and he told me that about 30 hours before the actual announcement, so I went long on EUR/USD a minute before actual announcement, and made a bunch of money. Anyway, though these "hints" are EXCITING...I still don't want to lose my head and risk my account in case one of them ever comes out "wrong", therefore here is how I am going to approach it. About 1 minute before the announcement or so, I will go long on EUR/USD, and for simplicity of calculation, I'll say that I'll go long with 6 lots. At the same time, I will open two order windows to short EUR/USD. One will be to short 6 lots, and the other will be to short 12 lots. And here is what's going to happen, if the number comes out at -65 or more negative, I will hold on to my position, and as always close it as soon as I see that the market lost momentum and is starting to retrace. I'll determine that by watching my 5-seconds chart on Oanda. Now, in case the number comes out at -63.9 or less negative, which is my short trigger, I will immediately click the "Sell" button with 12 lots...and what that will do is reverse my current position, by obviously closing or neutralizing my first 6 lots, and going short on the other 6 lots. If for some reason...the number comes out between -64 and -64.9, I will click the "Sell" window on the order with 6 lots, which will simply close or neutralize my current open position. Now that I think about it, this approach is actually very very cool, because all you have to think about is one direction when the news comes out, which makes it much simpler, and even if there was no hint, 50% of the time, you are always GUARANTEED a perfect fill, because we are entering the position way before the actual announcement, and in case we are wrong, we can always reverse the position during the announcement, which we do anyway... But with these hints, and 6 out of 6 correct ratio, it's starting to look too good to be true...I guess that's what you call "insider's information". August 10th UpdateI bought the EUR/USD before the Trade Balance announcement. It did come out more negative, but only slightly, it didn't hit my trigger, so I exited right away. Then we had the revision from previous month which was also more negative, but again it didn't do anything to the pair, because the initial number came out almost as expected. So no trades today again...if you exited right away your long, because it didn't hit my trigger, you probably profited a couple of pips...but certainly nothing worth talking about or calculating :) Wednesday, August 9th (4:30 am New York Time) UKWe have UK Trade Balance coming out. This should be a good trade. Very often the number comes out with big deviations from consensus, and the pound moves very nicely. Expected number is around -6.2 billion. If it comes out -5.7 billion or less negative, I will go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -6.7 billion or more negative, I will go short on GBP/USD. In my mind, I'll be looking to get about 35 pips out of this report, minus the spread of course, but if I see a retracement starting to happen before my target is reached, I'll close it. August 9th (8:15 am New York Time) CANADAWe have Canadian Housing Starts coming out. Expected number is 225K. If the number comes out at 275K or higher, I will go short on USD/CAD. If it comes out at 175K or lower, I will go long on USD/CAD. I really have almost no hope for this report. The governments usually get the housing consensus very close to actual numbers...I've never seen Canadian housing starts come out from consensus by more than 20K. So, 90% chance that this will be a no trade. If you are going to miss one trade, this is a good candidate :) I urge you not to take this trade, unless my triggers get hit. USD/CAD is not a very liquid pair, and before the news, the liquidity is almost gone, so bad fills, super high spreads, and slippage are very common, and unless the move is really big, you may not be able to cover slippage or high spread, so unless the numbers are crazily off like my triggers are set, I suggest not even touching this report. August 9th (8:15 am New York Time) CANADA UpdateThere were no trades. The UK trade balance came out close to what was expected...didn't hit my trigger. Then the Canadian Housing numbers also came out close to what was expected, and didn't hit my trigger either. August 8th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USAWe have unit labour costs and non-farm productivity
coming out of the U.S. August 8th, 2006 (2:15 pm New York Time) USAWe have FOMC rate decision coming out of the U.S.
It's expected that there August 8th, 2006 UpdateAs you know, earlier today, the unit labor costs
didn't hit my triggers, and U.S. didn't raise the rate, and were very
vague about their future intentions, so there were no trades.
|
|||||||||
| Lion Asset Management LLC © 2006 |
Home • Trading • Recruitment • Leads • Protection • Performance • Terms • FAQs • Contact • Privacy • Risk • Links • Blogs • Site Map |
|||||||||
 |
|
|||||||||
